Israel emerging as source of tension in Azerbaijan’s special relationship with Turkey

There is no strategic partnership in Eurasia stronger than Azerbaijan’s ties with Turkey. But Baku’s close relations with Israel are increasingly becoming a source of friction in the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance.

Public sentiment in Turkey is decidedly pro-Palestinian in the ongoing conflict between the Israeli military and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. All major political parties in Turkey are likewise supportive of the Palestinian cause to one degree or another. At the same time, Azerbaijan remains a staunch friend of Israel. Baku’s extensive economic and security ties with Israel played a key role in assisting the Azerbaijani military to retake Nagorno-Karabakh territory from 2020-2023.

Given the discrepancy in views, it is not surprising that allegations of Azerbaijani oil sales to Israel, volumes of which reportedly transit Turkish territory, have prompted protests outside the Azerbaijani state oil company’s (SOCAR’s) offices in Istanbul. Protesters have tacitly accused Azerbaijani leaders of undermining the special relationship between Baku and Ankara, carrying banners with slogans such as “Two States, One Betrayal.”

On June 20, SOCAR’s Istanbul office experienced another bout of vandalism, as protesters waving a Palestinian flag threw rocks at the glass windows of the building.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime is not known for its tolerance of protest or dissent, but authorities have shown an unusual level of forbearance for the pro-Palestinian demonstrations, although police did arrest 13 individuals for disorderly conduct on May 31.

Domestic political factors are pushing Erdogan to stake out an ardently pro-Palestinian stance. His ruling AKP party experienced a drubbing at the hands of the main opposition CHP in the late March local elections. A significant factor in the vote was a public perception, held by both conservative Islamists and oppositionists, that AKP was not doing enough to support the Palestinian cause.

Since then, Erdogan has been a champion of Palestinian liberty. “We object to the oppression, massacre and injustice that has been going on for 76 years,” he said during one early June speech. “We stand with the Palestinian people with all our means.”

Azerbaijani officials have clearly been rattled by the criticism. President Ilham Aliyev, during his recent trip to Egypt, stressed that the “tragedy in Gaza must be stopped.” Meanwhile, SOCAR issued a statement that denied the company was making direct sales to Israel, citing the technicality that it is merely fulfilling contractual obligations to provide a certain volume of oil for the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline.

“We conduct all our activities within the framework of international business agreements,” the statement said.

Some pro-Baku commentators have pushed back, accusing the Turks of ingratitude. For example, Nigar Ibrahimova, a Turkish journalist of Azeri origin, pointed out that SOCAR, unlike “your oil-rich Arab brothers,” distributed oil free of charge to areas impacted by the devastating earthquake in southern Turkey in 2023.

Given the tight control Aliyev’s administration flexes over Azerbaijan’s domestic political environment, there have been few expressions of public opinion concerning the warfare in Gaza. One notable exception was an under-the-radar, pro-Palestinian fundraiser held in Baku recently.

The simmering tension in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations could be seen in what was reported – and not reported – in official accounts of a one-on-one meeting between Erdogan and Aliyev on June 10.

A brief report of the meeting published by the Turkish Anadolu news agency noted that Erdogan raised the Israeli-Palestinian issue, highlighting  “the need for international pressure on Israel to address” alleged atrocities in Gaza. The report went on to say Ergogan “reaffirmed that a lasting solution lies in the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Meanwhile, a notably short account of the meeting published on Aliyev’s official presidential website did not contain any reference to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while hailing the “successful development of fraternal, friendly and allied relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey.”